Singapore’s total fertility rate is projected to reach a historic low of 0.97 in 2023, according to recent estimates. This continuous decline in the fertility rate has been a cause for concern, as it has significant implications for Singapore’s future. Factors such as the cost of raising children and the pressures of parenting have been identified as key contributors to this downward trend.
Total fertility rate (TFR) refers to the average number of live-births each female would have during her reproductive years if she were subject to the prevailing ASFRs in the population in the given year. Mathematically, it is 5 times the sum of the ASFRs by 5-yearly age groups, over the female reproductive ages for the reference period.
The Decline in Total Fertility Rate
Singapore’s total fertility rate has been on a downward trend since 2018 when it stood at 1.14. In subsequent years, it continued to fall to 1.12 in 2021 and further to 1.04 in 2022. These figures have remained below the replacement level of 2.1, which is the level of fertility needed to maintain a stable population size over time.
Various reasons contribute to Singapore’s low fertility rate. Some couples have had their marriage and parenthood plans disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in delayed family planning. Other concerns cited by couples include the financial costs of raising children, pressures to excel as parents, and difficulties in managing work-life balance.
Challenges of a Low Fertility Rate
Singapore is faced with the combined challenges of a persistently low fertility rate and an aging population. These challenges are not unique to Singapore and have also been experienced by other advanced societies such as South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, as well as European countries like Italy and Spain. The decline in the total fertility rate reflects a global shift in individual priorities and societal norms.
Implications for Singapore’s Future
A declining total fertility rate has significant implications for Singapore’s future. The burden of caring for both the young and elderly falls heavily on the “sandwiched” generation, who are caught between raising their own children and caring for aging parents. Additionally, with fewer individuals having their own families, there will be weaker familial support networks as people age.
Apart from the social implications, a low fertility rate also has a significant impact on the economy. A vibrant economy is largely driven by a thriving workforce, and with fewer births, Singapore’s workforce will be affected. This can lead to economic slowdowns, declining wages, and a less dynamic business environment, as seen in countries like South Korea and Italy.
Building a Family-Friendly Singapore
Despite the declining fertility rate, there is still a desire among young Singaporeans to get married and have children. The government is committed to creating a conducive environment for couples who wish to start a family. Initiatives such as enhancements to the Baby Bonus scheme, government vouchers to aid in renting a home, and the lowering of childcare fees have been introduced in Budget 2024. The government is also working to increase paternity leave provisions to benefit more fathers.
To moderate the impact of low birth rates and aging trends, Singapore has been granting citizenship at a measured and stable pace. The inflow of immigrants is carefully managed to maintain the racial balance in Singapore’s citizen population. Additionally, the government grants permanent residency to individuals based on projected population needs, such as increasing healthcare workers to support a growing demand in the sector.
Conclusion
Singapore’s total fertility rate is projected to hit a historic low in 2023, presenting significant challenges for the country’s future. Factors such as the rising cost of raising children and the pressures of parenting have contributed to this decline. The government acknowledges these challenges and is implementing measures to support couples in starting families. Balancing the population through careful management of citizenship and permanent residency is also part of Singapore’s strategy to navigate the impact of low birth rates and an aging population.
